机器人汽车能否缓解交通阻塞？(3)

[18]土地使用政策可能需要调整，以防城市杂乱无序地拓展，不然人们会为了廉价住房而搬出大都市区，因为高速通勤途中也能工作。基于个人车辆行驶里程征税是阻碍汽车出行的另一种方式。

[19]所有这些政策的改变都会具有争议且难以实现。

[20]艾萨克表示，尽管“无人驾驶技术可能给社会带来很多积极影响”，但人们仍然担心拥堵可能大大增加，这也在情理之中。

她说：“如果没有政府干预，人们出于本能会选择一人乘车。”

Self-driving cars are expected to usher in a new era of mobility, safety and convenience. The problem, say transportation researchers, is that people will use them too much.[2] Experts foresee robot cars chauffeuring2chauffeur 开车运送，为别人当汽车司机。children to school, dance class and baseball practice. The disabled and elderly will have new mobility. Commuters will be able to work, sleep,eat or watch movies on the way to the office. People may stay home more because they can send their cars to do things like pick up groceries they’ve ordered online.[3] Researchers believe the number of miles driven will skyrocket3skyrocket 突升，猛涨。. It’s less certain whether that will mean a corresponding surge4surge 大量。in traffic congestion,but it’s a clear possibility.无人驾驶汽车有望引领一个兼具流动性、安全性和便利性的新时代。交通研究人员表示，问题在于，人们将会过度使用它们。[2]专家预测，机器人汽车可以送孩子们上学、上舞蹈课、去练习棒球。残疾人和老人将会有新的移动方式。通勤者能在去办公室的路上工作、睡觉、吃东西或者看电影。人们待在家里的时间可能会变长，因为他们可以让车去做很多事情，例如去取在网上订购的物品。[3]研究人员认为，驾车出行的英里数将会急剧增加。这是否意味着交通堵塞会相应加剧还不太确定，但这种可能性很明显。[4] Gary Silberg, an auto industry expert at accounting firm KPMG, compares it to the introduction of smart phones. “It will be indispensable to your life,” he said. “It will be all sorts of things we can’t even think of today.”[5] Based on focus group5focus group 焦点小组（选自各阶层，讨论某专项问题；所得信息常为市场研究者或某政党所用）。in Atlanta,Denver and Chicago, KPMG predicts autonomous “mobility-on-demand”services—think Uber and Lyft without a driver—will result in double-digit6double-digit 两位数的。increases in travel by people in two age groups: those over 65, and those 16 to 24.[6] Vehicles traveled a record 3.1 trillion miles in the U.S. last year. Increased trips in autonomous cars by those two age groups would boost miles traveled by an additional 2 trillion miles annually by 2050, KPMG calculated. If self-driving cars without passengers start running errands7run errands 跑腿儿；处理杂事。, the increase could be double that.[7] And if people in their middle years, when driving is at its peak, also increase their travel, that yearly total could reach 8 trillion miles. “This could be massive,” Silberg said.[8] Driverless cars are expected to make travel both safer and human error responsible for 90 percent of traffic accidents, they’re expected to sharply reduce accidents,driving down the cost of insurance and repairs.[4]毕马威会计事务所的汽车行业专家加里·西尔伯格将机器人汽车的推出与智能手机的问世相提并论。他说：“机器人汽车将成为人类生活中不可或缺的东西。它会带来我们今天无法想象的各种变化。”[5]根据亚特兰大、丹佛和芝加哥等地焦点小组的调查，毕马威预测，“按需移动”的自动驾驶服务（想象一下没有司机的优步和来福车）将使两个年龄段的出行人数呈两位数增加：65岁以上和16—24岁人群。[6]去年，美国的汽车行驶里程达到了创纪录的3.1 万亿英里。据毕马威计算，到2050 年，这两个年龄段的自动驾驶汽车出行里程每年将会再增加2万亿英里。如果没有乘客的无人驾驶汽车开始“跑腿”，那么这种增长可能会翻一倍。[7]中年人驾车出行最多，如果他们也增加出行，那么年汽车出行总里程可达8万亿英里。“这是非常庞大的数字。”西尔伯格说。[8]无人驾驶汽车将使出行更加安全，同时减少出行成本。由于90%的交通事故都是人为造成，无人驾驶汽车有望大幅减少交通事故，由此降低保险和维修成本。[9] But the biggest cost of car travel is drivers’ time, said Don MacKenzie,a University of Washington transportation researcher. That cost comes down dramatically when people can use their travel time productively on other tasks.[10] A study by MacKenzie and other researchers published in the journal Transportation Research: Part A estimates that the vehicles can cut the cost of travel by as much as 80 percent. That in turn drives up miles traveled by 60 percent.[11] There’s a fork ahead in this driverless road, says a report by Lauren Isaac, manager of sustainable transportation at WSP/Parsons Brinckerhoff,that envisions8either utopia9or a nightmare.[12] In the best case, congestion is reduced because driverless cars and trucks are safer and can travel faster with reduced space between them. Highway lanes can be narrower because vehicles won’t need as much margin10for will be fewer accidents to tie up traffic. But those advantages will be limited as long as driverless cars share roads with conventional cars, likely for decades.[9]然而，华盛顿大学的交通研究员邓·麦克坎兹表示，汽车出行最大的成本考量是司机的时间。当人们可以有效地利用出行时间完成其他任务时，这个成本就会大幅度下降。[10]麦克坎兹和其他研究员在《交通研究A》杂志上发表了一篇研究报告，该研究估计，这些车辆可以降低多达80%的出行成本。而这会转而提高60%的出行里数。[11]柏诚集团的可持续运输经理劳伦·艾萨克在其报告中指出，无人驾驶这条路面临着一个分岔口，它所预示的要么是乌托邦，要么就是噩梦。[12]最好的情况是，无人驾驶的汽车和卡车更安全，在车间距减小的同时行驶速度更快，交通堵塞因此而减少。因为车辆间无须更大间距以防事故发生，所以公路车道可以更窄，而由事故导致的交通阻塞也会减少。但是，只要无人驾驶汽车与传统汽车共享道路（这种情况大概会持续几十年），上述优势都会受限。[13] But that scenario11scenario 情形，情境。depends on a societal shift from private vehicle ownership to commercial fleets of driverless cars that can be quickly summoned with a phone app. Driverless fleets12fleet 车队。would have to become super-efficient carpools,picking up and dropping off multiple passengers traveling in the same direction.[14] The congestion nightmare would result if a large share of people can’t be persuaded to effectively share robot cars with strangers and to continue using mass transit, Isaac said.[15] A study last year by the International Transport Forum, a transportation policy think tank, simulated13simulate 模仿，模拟。the impact on traffic in Lisbon, Portugal, if conventional cars were replaced with driverless cars that take either a single passenger at a time or several passengers found that as long as half of travel is still carried out by conventional cars,total vehicle miles traveled will increase from 30 to 90 percent, suggesting that even widespread sharing of driverless cars would mean greater congestion for a long time.[16] Airlines also may face new competition as people choose to travel by car at speeds well over 100 mph between cities a few hundred miles apart instead of flying. Transit agencies will need to rethink their services in order to stay competitive, especially because the elimination of a driver would make carsharing services cheaper.[13]但是，这种情况取决于从拥有私人汽车到使用商业无人驾驶车队的社会转变。商业无人驾驶车队可通过手机应用程序快速召唤，这必会成为非常高效的拼车方式，可接送同一方向的多名乘客。[14]艾萨克表示，如果大部分人不愿与陌生人有效共享机器人汽车，而是继续使用公共交通工具，那么交通拥堵的噩梦就会变为现实。[15]去年，交通政策智囊团“国际交通论坛”做了一项研究。他们将传统汽车换成一次乘坐一名或数名乘客的无人驾驶汽车，模拟研究此举对葡萄牙里斯本交通状况的影响。研究发现，只要传统汽车出行仍占一半，汽车行驶总里程将增加30%到90%，这表明，即使无人驾驶汽车的共享出行方式广泛普及，很长一段时期内，拥堵也会更加严重。[16]航空公司也可能面临新的竞争，因为如果两个城市相距不过几百英里，而驾车时速可远超100英里，那人们就会选择驾车而不是坐飞机。运输公司为了保持竞争力，将需要重新考虑他们的服务，特别是在无人驾驶会使汽车共享服务更便宜的情况下。[17] To make the shared-vehicle model work, government would have to impose congestion pricing on highway,restrict parking in urban centers, add more high-occupancy vehicle lanes14high-occupancy vehicle lane高载率车道，即HOV车道，指为提倡拼车以降低汽车空载率，减少能源消耗，缓解交通压力而修建的拼车车道。车道上有HOV标志。and take other measures to discourage people from traveling alone in their self-driving cars.[18] Land-use policies may need to be adjusted to prevent sprawl15sprawl 杂乱无序地拓展。, or people will move beyond the fringes of metropolitan areas for low-cost housing because they can work while commuting at high speeds. Taxes based on the number of miles a personal vehicle travels are another way to discourage car travel.[19] All these policy changes would be controversial and difficult to achieve.[20] While there are “loads of likely positive impacts for society associated with driverless technology,” people are right to worry about potential for huge increases in congestion, Isaac said.“Without any government influence,”she said, “human nature is to get into that single occupancy vehicle.”[17]为了使共享车辆模式发挥作用，政府将不得不收取公路拥堵费，限制在市中心停车，增加更多高载率车道，并采取其他措施阻碍人们单独乘坐无人驾驶汽车出行。[18]土地使用政策可能需要调整，以防城市杂乱无序地拓展，不然人们会为了廉价住房而搬出大都市区，因为高速通勤途中也能工作。基于个人车辆行驶里程征税是阻碍汽车出行的另一种方式。[19]所有这些政策的改变都会具有争议且难以实现。[20]艾萨克表示，尽管“无人驾驶技术可能给社会带来很多积极影响”，但人们仍然担心拥堵可能大大增加，这也在情理之中。她说：“如果没有政府干预，人们出于本能会选择一人乘车。”

文章来源：《汽车实用技术》 网址: http://www.qcsyjs.cn/qikandaodu/2021/0119/715.html